Perbandingan Metode Peramalan ARIMA dan Single Exponential Smoothing pada Kasus Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kota Semarang
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33633/joins.v8i2.9335Keywords:
Demam Berdarah Dengue, Peramalan, ARIMA, Single Exponential SmoothingAbstract
Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) merupakan masalah kesehatan yang signifikan di Indonesia, khususnya di Kota Semarang. Setiap tahunnya, terdapat tren peningkatan penderita demam berdarah. Jika pemangku kepentingan tidak melakukan tindakan dan kebijakan preventif, hal ini akan berdampak buruk pada kesehatan dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Peramalan kasus di masa yang akan datang merupakan salah satu upaya pencegahan dan pengendalian penyakit DBD. Penelitian ini menggunakan teknik peramalan ARIMA dan Single Smoothing Exponential. Data time series yang digunakan adalah bulan Januari sampai dengan Desember 2022 berdasarkan kasus kejadian di tingkat kecamatan Kota Semarang. Hasil percobaan kedua metode tersebut kemudian dibandingkan untuk mencari hasil terbaik dalam memprediksi jumlah kasus DBD di Kota Semarang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode ARIMA memberikan hasil terbaik, dengan nilai MSE dan MAE yang lebih kecil.References
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