Implementasi Metode Holt-Winters dan Deseasonalized Untuk Prediksi Penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta

Authors

  • Ulfah Mediaty Arief Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Sri Sukamta Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Andika Anantyo Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Almas Diqya Wafa' Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Alfan Maulana Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Anggun Fia Febianingrum Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Ambrosius Lingga Praditya Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Ade Putra Universitas Negeri Semarang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62411/tc.v23i1.9715

Keywords:

Prediksi penumpang, Holt-Winters, Deseasonalized

Abstract

Bandar udara menjadi elemen infrastruktur yang memiliki peran signifikan dalam perjalanan udara. Manajemen bandara yang kurang baik dapat menyebabkan berbagai permasalahan, salah satunya adalah fluktuasi penumpang pada tiap tahun yang menimbulkan kerugian jika tidak sesuai dengan perencanaan dan operasional bandara. Dengan permasalahan yang ada, penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk melakukan prediksi jumlah penumpang pada Bandara Soekarno-Hatta untuk mengetahui perencanaan dan manajemen bandara yang lebih baik pada beberapa periode waktu kedepan. Metode Holt-Winters dan Deseasonalized digunakan untuk melakukan prediksi jumlah penumpang. Berdasarkan pengujian yang telah dilakukan menggunakan data jumlah penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta tahun 2015-2022 yang berasal dari BPS, didapatkan hasil prediksi menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters lebih akurat dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 224.215,83 yang lebih kecil dibandingkan Metode Deseasonalized dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 416.078,74. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt-Winters lebih cocok digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta dengan kesalahan prediksi yang lebih rendah dan dapat berjalan dengan baik dengan data yang memiliki fluktuasi tinggi.

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Published

2024-06-18