Implementasi Metode Holt-Winters dan Deseasonalized Untuk Prediksi Penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta

Andika Anantyo; Ulfah Mediaty Arief; Sri Sukamta; Almas Diqya Wafa'; Alfan Maulana; Anggun Fia Febianingrum; Ambrosius Lingga Praditya; Ade Putra

doi:10.62411/tc.v23i1.9715

Implementasi Metode Holt-Winters dan Deseasonalized Untuk Prediksi Penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta

Andika Anantyo, Ulfah Mediaty Arief, Sri Sukamta, Almas Diqya Wafa', Alfan Maulana, Anggun Fia Febianingrum, Ambrosius Lingga Praditya, Ade Putra

Abstract

Bandar udara menjadi elemen infrastruktur yang memiliki peran signifikan dalam perjalanan udara. Manajemen bandara yang kurang baik dapat menyebabkan berbagai permasalahan, salah satunya adalah fluktuasi penumpang pada tiap tahun yang menimbulkan kerugian jika tidak sesuai dengan perencanaan dan operasional bandara. Dengan permasalahan yang ada, penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk melakukan prediksi jumlah penumpang pada Bandara Soekarno-Hatta untuk mengetahui perencanaan dan manajemen bandara yang lebih baik pada beberapa periode waktu kedepan. Metode Holt-Winters dan Deseasonalized digunakan untuk melakukan prediksi jumlah penumpang. Berdasarkan pengujian yang telah dilakukan menggunakan data jumlah penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta tahun 2015-2022 yang berasal dari BPS, didapatkan hasil prediksi menggunakan Metode Holt-Winters lebih akurat dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 224.215,83 yang lebih kecil dibandingkan Metode Deseasonalized dengan nilai RMSE sebesar 416.078,74. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa metode Holt-Winters lebih cocok digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah penumpang Bandara Soekarno-Hatta dengan kesalahan prediksi yang lebih rendah dan dapat berjalan dengan baik dengan data yang memiliki fluktuasi tinggi.

Keywords

Prediksi penumpang; Holt-Winters; Deseasonalized

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.62411/tc.v23i1.9715