Fuzzy Time Series Untuk Prediksi Harga Gabah Kering Panen

Authors

  • Sri Siswanti STMIK Sinar Nusantara Surakarta http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8146-7611
  • Agus Nugroho STMIK Sinar Nusantara Surakarta
  • Bebas Widada STMIK Sinar Nusantara Surakarta
  • Andriani Kusumaningrum STMIK Sinar Nusantara Surakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33633/tc.v22i2.7956

Keywords:

Fuzzy Time Series, Petani, Prediksi, Gabah Kering

Abstract

Meningkatnya jumlah penduduk membuat kebutuhan akan makanan pokok akan selalu meningkat, terutama beras. Namun di sisi lain, dengan adanya jumlah lahan pertanian semakin menyempit akibatnya beralih fungsi lahan pertanian sebagai lahan non pertanian. Hal ini mengakibatkan produksi padi saat ini tidak mampu mengimbangi kebutuhan pangan di Indonesia. Permasalahan yang sering dihadapi petani adalah lemahnya posisi tawar karena kurangnya akses pasar, informasi pasar, dan permodalan. Hal ini membuat petani tidak berdaya untuk menegosiasikan harga hasil panennya, sehingga petani menjual hasil panennya secara borongan kepada orang yang bermodal lebih, dimana dalam penetapan harga menjadi tidak menguntungkan bagi petani. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membuat suatu sistem yang dapat memberikan informasi perubahan harga gabah kering pada panen bulan berikutnya. Informasi ini akan dijadikan acuan untuk menentukan harga jual gabah kering, sehingga kerugian dapat dikurangi. Hasil perhitungan peramalan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Times Series pada bulan Juni dengan harga gabah Rp. 4544,39 per Kilogram dengan nilai MAPE 2,68% atau akurasi tinggi.

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Published

2023-05-26

Issue

Vol. 22 No. 2 (2023): Mei 2023

Section

Articles

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