Prediksi Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara Melalui Pintu Udara Menggunakan ARIMA, Glmnet, dan Prophet

Authors

  • Fakhrul Mu'minin Universitas Nasional
  • Fauziah Fauziah Universitas Nasional
  • Aris Gunaryati Universitas Nasional

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.33633/tc.v21i1.5695

Keywords:

Prediksi, Pariwisata, ARIMA, Glmnet, Prophet

Abstract

Pariwisata merupakan salah satu industri yang memberikan kemajuan perekonomian negara. Pandemi COVID-19 mengakibatkan industri pariwisata memburuk karena pembatasan kunjungan yang secara luas. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mendapatkan model terbaik dalam memprediksi kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia melalui pintu udara dengan membandingkan tiga metode, yaitu ARIMA, Prophet, dan Glmnet. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan Badan Pusat Statistik dengan periode Januari 2017 sampai dengan November 2021. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan model ARIMA merupakan model terbaik untuk melakukan prediksi dibandingkan model Prophet dan Glmnet karena menghasilkan nilai terbaik pada MAE sebesar 749030.4, MAPE sebesar 23196.45, MASE sebesar 17.86681, SMAPE sebesar 175.9592, dan RMSE sebesar 779670.7. Berdasarkan hasil prediksi menggunakan model ARIMA(1,1,0)(0,0,1)12, dalam 12 bulan berikutnya, menunjukkan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia melalui pintu udara cenderung mengalami peningkatan. Menindaklanjuti hasil penelitian ini, bahwa penggunaan kombinasi model harus lebih dioptimalkan untuk pembaharuan dalam teknik peramalan.

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Published

2022-02-28

Issue

Vol. 21 No. 1 (2022): Februari 2022

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Articles

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