Perhitungan Peramalan Pengadaan Obat Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Single Moving Average Pada Unit Farmamin Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33633/joins.v2i2.1680Abstract
Abstrak Ketidakstabilan jumlah setiap jenis obat yang disediakan oleh Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah untuk setiap Kabupaten/Kota dikarenakan masih dilakukan secara konvensional yaitu hanya dengan melakukan perhitungan manual dengan menjumlahkan keseluruhan permintaan obat untuk mengetahui jumlah setiap jenis obat yang harus disediakan di tahun berikutnya. Pada penelitian ini diimplementasikannya teknik peramalan dengan menggunakan metode Single Moving Averages dan Single Exponential Smoothing dan pengujian error dengan menggunakan metode Mean Absolute Deviation dan Mean Square Error, Setelah dilakukannya perhitungan dan pengujian dengan menggunakan kedua metode tersebut, akhirnya diperoleh hasil Metode Single Exponential Smoothing adalah metode yang paling sesuai untuk digunakan dalam memprediksi jumlah setiap jenis obat yang diperlukan untuk dapat memprediksi kebutuhan jumlah setiap jenis obat. Hasil dari pengujian metode Metode Exponential Smoothing memiliki nilai rata-rata terendah dengan MAD untuk seluruh jumlah jenis obat sebesar 25058, lalu nilai rata-rata MSE nya adalah 40826895. Kata kunci : Single Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Obat, Peramalan, Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Abstract The instability of the number of each type of medicine provided by the Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah for each District is due to conventional use only by using manual calculations to determine the amount of each drug to be provided in the following year. In this study the implementation of forecasting techniques using Single Moving Averages and Single Exponential Smoothing and error testing using Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Square Error, After doing the calculation and testing using both methods, finally obtained the result of Single Exponential Smoothing Method is which is most appropriate for use in predicting the number of each type of drug needed to be able to predict the need for the amount of each type of drug. The results of the Exponential Smoothing Method method test have the lowest average value with MAD for the entire number of drug types of 25058, then the average MSE value is 40826895. Keywords: Single Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Medicine, Forecasting, Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah.Downloads
Published
2017-11-09
How to Cite
[1]
L. M. Tanjung and A. Fahmi, “Perhitungan Peramalan Pengadaan Obat Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dan Single Moving Average Pada Unit Farmamin Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah”, Journal of Information System, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 234–243, Nov. 2017.
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