Analyzing Financial Performance and Stock Valuation in Consumer Cyclicals (2021–2024)

Abstract

This research is motivated by an anomalous phenomenon in the consumer cyclicals sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2021–2024 period, characterized by an upward trend in market capitalization amidst a significant decline in trading volume and stock prices. In response to this phenomenon, this study aims to empirically examine the effect of Return on Assets (ROA), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Earnings per Share (EPS), Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), and Price Earning Ratio (PER) on stock prices. The target population encompasses all public companies within the consumer cyclicals sector on the IDX. A final sample of 40 companies was selected using a purposive sampling technique based on the criteria of consecutive annual report publications, listing on the Main Board, and the absence of special equity notations. Employing a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis (assisted by Eviews 13 software), the results reveal that NPM and EPS have a positive and significant effect, and DER has a negative and significant effect, while the ROA and PER variables are proven to have no significant effect on stock price movements. In conclusion, these findings confirm that amidst fluctuations in operational performance, investors' focus in the cyclical sector is centered more on operational efficiency, actual earnings per share, and capital structure rather than general profitability or valuation indicators, thereby providing more relevant fundamental analysis guidance for investors.